Making $$$$ with Michael Darda | The Shintaro Higashi Show
What do finance and jiu-jitsu have in common? On this episode, Shintaro and David Kim welcome Michael Darda, Managing Director and Chief Economist at Roth Capital Partners—and a jiu-jitsu black belt who’s sparred with both the macroeconomy and world-class competitors. Darda shares hard-earned insights on cycles, risk, humility, and why group classes matter for more than martial arts.
From Main Street to the Mats
Michael’s journey started far from Wall Street, rising through Wisconsin’s legislature before embracing finance and economics. But his life was transformed by discovering jiu-jitsu with his wife at Marcio Stamboski’s Gracie Sports in Connecticut—drawn by old-school privates, beatdowns in group class, and a relentless drive to master the “truth machine” of the mats. Training alongside people from all walks of life, Darda credits group classes for exposing him to adversity, variety, and real learning—advice he says is priceless in any pursuit.
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Asymmetric Bets: Techniques and Trades
Asked about the parallels between old-school macro trades and jiu-jitsu tactics, Darda points to classic closed guard—a low-risk, high-reward position that cycles back into fashion as new generations rediscover its power. Just as markets cycle through trends, so does jiu-jitsu: “The simple things often are the best things,” he says, recalling fundamentals that work across eras and opponents.
Humility, Ego, and Risk—Across Markets and Martial Arts
Darda isn’t shy about the harsh realities of both investing and grappling. The market and the mats will punish your ego—whether you’re clinging to bad trades or refusing to tap to a well-locked submission. Humility, he argues, is essential: in trading, survivors cut their losses; on the mat, champions tap early and keep training. “With age and experience, you learn to pick your training partners, watch your diet and sleep, and adapt—because the risk isn’t worth the stubbornness,” Darda explains.
Why the Recession Didn’t Happen—And What Happens Next
In a fascinating macro digression, Darda reviews the much-feared—but surprisingly absent—recession of the 2020s. Despite inverted yield curves, monetary tightening, and regional banking crises, the U.S. economy chugged along, even pulling off an “immaculate disinflation” few thought possible. Darda credits both Fed policy and major “luck”—especially a rapid supply-side rebound (productivity, immigration, labor market flexibility) that arrived just in time to offset tightening and keep the business cycle alive.
Looking ahead, Darda remains cautiously optimistic—pointing to short-term volatility from tariffs and supply shocks, but leaving open the possibility of another soft landing, especially if the AI productivity boom is real. “Markets may seem overvalued here, but they might not be wrong,” he notes, highlighting the need for humility, adaptability, and always keeping an eye on risk.
Blending Passions: Living an Integrated Life
Perhaps most inspiring is Darda’s approach to living a fully integrated life—bringing his passion for jiu-jitsu, health, and wellness into his economic research and client notes. What started as a small end-of-letter section has become a key way to connect with others, building trust and relatability in a stressful industry. “If anyone gets anything positive out of it, I’ve done my job,” he says.
Takeaways for Listeners
Master fundamentals: Simplicity, patience, and smart risk work in every field.
Stay humble: Both markets and martial arts will test and bruise your ego.
Integrate your passions: Success comes from authenticity—in business, sport, and life.
Be ready to adapt: Cycles, shocks, and challenges are inevitable, but those who adjust (and tap early) outlast those who refuse to change.
Follow Michael Darda’s insights on macroeconomics, markets, and martial arts at Roth Capital Partners and in his Sunday Musings newsletter.
For more interviews bridging the mat and the marketplace, subscribe to The Shintaro Higashi Show on YouTube and Podcast platforms.
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